According to Jinan Customs statistics, in the first four months of 2013, 54.25 million tires were exported from Shandong ports, an increase of 9.3% compared with the same period of 2012 (the same below); a value of US$2.63 billion was a decrease of 1%; the average export price was US$48.5 per piece, falling. 9.4%.

I. The main features of the tire export of Shandong Port in the first 4 months

(I) The volume of exports fell sharply in April, and the average export price stabilized at a low level. The monthly export volume of Shandong Port's tires in January and March 2013 were both double-digit growth, of which 16.80 million were exported in March, a record high. Exports in the month of April fell sharply to 13.79 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9% and a decrease of 14.3% compared with the previous period, which was the first year-on-year decrease in monthly exports since March 2011. During the same period, the average monthly export price ended the six consecutive month-on-month decline in March 2013, and the low level stabilized in April. The average export price for the month was US$50/barrel, down 5.7% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month.

(b) Processing trade accounts for over 80% of exports. In the first four months, Shandong Port exported 44.29 million tires through processing trade, an increase of 15%, which accounted for 81.6% of the total export volume of Shandong port tires (the same below). During the same period, exports were 8.934 million in general trade, a decrease of 13.6%.

(3) The United States, the European Union, Latin America, and Africa are the major export markets, and the volume of exports to the United States has soared. In the first four months, Shandong Port exported 10.28 million tires to the United States, an increase of 40.5%; exports to the EU reached 9.092 million, an increase of 11%; exports to Latin America to 8.277 million, a decrease of 3.3%; and exports to Africa increased by 8.441 million. 5.6%; the export volume of the above four accounts for 66.1% of the total export volume. In the same period, exports to the Middle East (17 countries) were 6.101 million, a decrease of 14%; exports to ASEAN were 4.995 million, an increase of 30.1%.

(4) The proportion of private enterprises' exports accounted for nearly 70%. In the first four months, private enterprises in Shandong Port exported 37.52 million tires, an increase of 13.4%, accounting for 69.2% of total exports. In the same period, foreign investment companies exported 12.07 million items, a decrease of 2.1%; state-owned enterprises exported 4.662 million items, an increase of 10%.

(e) Motorized passenger car tires are the major export varieties. In the first four months, Shandong Port exported 29.04 million motorized passenger car tires, an increase of 16.2%, accounting for 53.5% of the total export volume. During the same period, the number of passenger or truck tires exported was 10.91 million, an increase of 11.6%; the number of tires for other construction trucks with an export circle of ≤ 61cm was 6.609 million, an increase of 6.6%; and the export of motorcycle tires was 5.189 million, an increase of 18.1%.

Second, the main reason for the export volume and price of tires at Shandong Port fell in April

(a) The decline in raw material prices has driven the price of tires to fall. The continuous rise in the price of rubber for many years has greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of the rubber farmers. The main producing areas of nine countries, represented by Malaysia, gradually got rid of the impact of severe weather on natural rubber production in 2005, and the output of the country gradually recovered. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, dozens of synthetic rubber projects under construction and plans are under construction in China, with a total annual production capacity of over 3.5 million tons. In 2015, the total capacity of China's synthetic rubber plants may reach 6.4 million tons or more; The demand for synthetic rubber is 4.695 million tons, and the situation of overcapacity will be inevitable. As of April 15, the rubber stock in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 366,900 tons, an increase of 8,300 tons compared with March 29, including 208,800 tons of natural rubber and 158,100 tons of synthetic and composite rubber. The continuous increase in inventory means that demand in the rubber spot market remains weak. In mid-April, Hujiao's main 1309 contract fell below the 2012 low of 20,990 yuan/ton, and on May 2 it only closed at 19,120 yuan/ton. In addition, with the reduction of natural rubber import tariffs in 2013, the import cost of enterprises has further decreased. The sharp fall in raw material prices directly led to a reduction in tire sales prices.

(b) The downturn in the European auto market, the growing market watching atmosphere, and the end of the concentrated shipment period will jointly restrain tire demand. European Automobile Manufacturers Association released data that in March 2013, the EU’s auto sales were 1.307 million units, down 10.2% year-on-year; sales in the first quarter were 2.989 million units, down 9.8% year-on-year, which was a consecutive 18-month decline. In the first quarter, the European replacement tire market also suffered a decline across the board. Sales of various types of tires fell in different degrees compared to the same period in 2012. Passenger car tire sales decreased by 12%, motorcycle tire sales decreased by 13%, and truck tire sales decreased by 1 %. On the other hand, due to the sharp fall in rubber prices, the demand for downstream tire customers has become more and more conspicuous, the willingness to lower prices has been strong, and the number of tire orders has been significantly reduced, mainly in small orders, and the demand for delayed delivery of some customers has increased. In addition, because March coincides with the start-up and delivery of companies after the Spring Festival, the surge in exports in March has caused a certain degree of pressure on the continued increase in April. The above factors together suppress the continued increase in tire exports.

(3) Trade barriers and protectionism frequently hamper China's tire exports. The European Union's tire labeling regulations were implemented on November 1, 2012. The regulations require that car tires, light truck tires, truck tires, and bus tires sold in the European Union must be labeled to show the tire's fuel efficiency, wet road grip, and roads. The level of noise. This regulation puts forward higher requirements for the production technology, inspection standards, and detection methods for China's tires exported to Europe. In addition, the United States, Brazil, Thailand, Colombia, Mexico and other countries also launched anti-dumping investigations on China's tire products. On September 4, 2012, the Brazilian Foreign Trade Commission decided to increase the import tariffs on bicycle tires and automobile tires from 16% to 25% for a period of one year to encourage the production of similar domestic products. Frequent trade barriers and protectionism have hindered China’s tire exports.

Third, the current issues of concern and related recommendations

(1) Structural excess capacity of the tire industry and insufficient product competitiveness, but the increase in industrial profits brought about by the decline in rubber prices may accelerate the acceleration of transformation and upgrading. In recent years, China's tire production and exports have grown at a rapid rate and global market share has increased year by year. However, domestic tire companies still take the path of small profits and quick turnover to win by volume. The homogenization of China's tire industry is more serious. It is simply pursuing growth in volume and simple reproduction of production capacity. The technical content and added value of products are low, and the production capacity at mid-to-low end is expanded too quickly, while the supply of high-end tires is in short supply. In order to seize the market and increase sales promotion, all companies have intensified vicious competition in tire exports, prices have been continuously reduced, profit margins have been squeezed, and the accompanying risk of trade protection in foreign markets has increased. Accelerating the entry into the high-end tire market has become the future development direction of the domestic tire industry, and the decline in rubber prices will bring about positive results for the industry transformation and upgrading. In early 2011, the price of China's natural rubber was still around 4.3 million yuan/ton, and in April 2013 it had fallen to about 20,000 yuan/ton, a drop of more than 50%. As the price of rubber occupies a large proportion in the cost of tires, the decline in rubber prices has led to a significant increase in the net profit of the tire industry. In 2012, China's tire industry realized a profit of 27.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.7%.

(B) The accelerated deployment of foreign brands, local tire companies are facing an impact. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's automobile industry, China has become the fastest growing tire market in the world, and its market size accounts for about 10% of the world's tire market. Therefore, the new round of expansion of tire enterprises in developed countries in China has risen. For example, Michelin is located in Shenyang, Dongyang in Zhangjiagang, Sumitomo in Changsha, Bridgestone in Huizhou, and German Volkswagen in Hefei. New factories or expansions are being built. Since 1993, many key enterprises in the domestic tire industry that annually produce more than one million tires have been controlled by large multinational tire companies. At present, Michelin's annual production capacity in Shanghai and Shenyang totals 8 million. In 2015, Michelin's total annual production capacity in China is expected to approach 20 million. Pirelli plans to double its production capacity at its Luzhou, Shandong, plant by the end of 2014 and achieve an annual output of 10 million tires. According to forecasts, foreign tire brands have occupied 70% of China's tire market. While foreign tire companies are seizing the high-end market, they are increasing ordinary and even low-end tire products in China, further aggravating the overcapacity situation in the domestic tire industry. Tyre companies have caused more serious impacts and squeezes.

Suggestions for this: First, strengthen support for local tire companies, encourage local tire companies to technological innovation, improve tire production of raw materials and formulas, improve product environmental performance and product quality, strengthen brand awareness, and strive to build international brands; Second, close Concerned about the price of natural rubber and the changes in the quantity and price of tires exported to Europe and the United States. While further expanding the initiative for upstream raw material prices, we will actively regulate the order of tire exports, guide enterprises to grasp the export rhythm, and prevent trade protectionism from rising or further aggravate. Third, it is timely. Grasping the important opportunities for the transformation and upgrading of China's tire industry, promoting structural adjustment, strict entry barriers, implementing low-carbon economic strategies, promoting the development of green tire industrialization, and achieving a transformation from element-intensive to technology-driven.

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