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Some people say that anti-dumping is a double-edged sword. This argument was indeed confirmed in the domestic PVC market. Over the past few years, in the face of the strong price of anti-dumping PVC products and a strong supply and demand market, it is difficult to suppress the expansion of domestic capacity expansion. Almost all competent chlor-alkali enterprises are pondering or implementing expansion, and the expansion of production facilities is mostly based on small-scale calcium carbide methods with less investment, energy consumption and pollution. Businesses have a point of view: now is the best period for product sales, as long as the front, you can catch a profit this bus. Under this kind of thinking, in 2004 China's polyvinyl chloride production capacity reached 6.6 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons over the previous year; in the first half of this year, the production capacity increased by 25% over the same period of last year, and it is estimated that the annual PVC production capacity will reach 9.8 million. Tons, while there are still a large number of projects to be put into operation or completed. More than 60% of these production capacities use the calcium carbide process route, half of which is the “contribution†of small enterprises with an annual output of less than 100,000 tons.
This allows us to not think of the industry's "Tenth Five-Year Plan". Originally, in the “Tenth Five-Year Plan†of the chlor-alkali industry, adjusting the raw material route of PVC and limiting the production of calcium carbide method is an important part. It is clearly stated in the plan that no new build-up of the calcium carbide process for the production of PVC units will be required in principle. However, over the past few years, the output of the industry far exceeded the planned forecast of 3.4 million tons, and that “in principle†has not been seriously implemented. The reason is that although compared with the calcium carbide process, ethylene quality is high, energy consumption is low, and pollution is small, but in the current world crude oil prices continue to rise, the price per ton price is at least 600 yuan higher than the calcium carbide method to 1000 yuan, so in the entire society, the requirements of safety and environmental protection is not high, the small-scale production of calcium carbide method is still more popular than the ethylene method.
But is it worthwhile for the small-scale calcium carbide production companies to take advantage of it? Tianjin Port's export data for PVC this year is actually warning us that our PVC production has soared and exports have risen sharply, at the expense of the environment and energy consumption. With the global economy highly valuing safety and environmental protection, how long can our “price advantage†created by our “low cost†be maintained? Further think about the distance, if the international crude oil prices fall from high levels, or soon there is a new alternative energy, there will be a market for calcium carbide production? What will happen to these companies that “grab opportunities�
For a long period of time, people have become accustomed to viewing more of the planned investment and output value, and neglecting the implementation of the structural adjustment proposed by the plan. PVC exports did not show a trend of volume and price rise, which exposed the problems in China's PVC industry restructuring. This shows that the completion of the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" in this industry is not satisfactory. But how can we push our responsibilities to companies? Why are plans for implementing plans not developed at the same time when planning is done so as not to make plans become paperless?
A recent report by Xinhua News Agency should attract the attention of the industry. The report said that since China imposed anti-dumping duties on imports of polyvinyl chloride originating in the United States, South Korea, Japan, and Russia and the Taiwan region of China in 2003, China’s polyvinyl chloride production industry has developed rapidly, with an average annual increase in production capacity of 50 percent. %, exports have increased year by year. However, the export of PVC did not show a trend of volume and price rising. As exports increased, prices began to fall. According to the customs statistics in the report, in the first half of this year, 5,944 tons of PVC was exported from Tianjin Port, which was a 26.7-fold increase from the same period of last year, and the export value was US$4.57 million, which was only 21.5 times that of the same period of last year. The average export price of PVC was US$769/ton, a decrease of 18.7%.