Since the beginning of this year, the domestic price of potash fertilizer in China has been on a steady upward trend, showing a sharp increase that has raised concerns among farmers and industry experts. According to data from the China Fertilizer Information Network, the port delivery price of white potassium was 2,250 yuan per ton in October 2007. By January 2008, it had climbed to 3,300 yuan, reaching 3,600 yuan in March and soaring to 4,000 yuan by April. As a crucial input for agriculture, the sharp rise in potash prices has drawn widespread attention across the country. To support the "three rural" policies and protect farmers’ interests and their enthusiasm for farming, the Chinese government introduced a series of regulatory measures to control the prices of agricultural materials. Despite strict price controls, the domestic potash price continued to climb. The root cause, according to reports, is the rapid increase in international potash prices. Currently, global fertilizer prices are rising sharply, closely linked to changes in grain supply and demand. According to the latest report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global grain inventories at the end of the 2007/2008 season were only 405 million tons—the lowest since 1982—and the inventory-to-consumer ratio stood at 18.8%, near the 18% warning level. In addition, food shortages have occurred in parts of Southeast Asia and Haiti, while the weakening US dollar has further driven up fertilizer prices. According to the International Fertilizer Market Weekly (FMB), the CIF prices for major potash-importing countries have surged. In Southeast Asia, the CIF price rose from about $230 at the start of the year to $450 by the end of 2007, and has now reached a historic high of $750. Brazil, the fourth-largest importer, saw its CIF prices reach $750 in the second quarter of 2008—more than double the same period last year. Industry experts predict that international potash prices could hit $1,000 per ton this year. China’s annual potash demand is close to 11 million tons, but domestic production is only around 3 million tons due to resource constraints, resulting in an import dependency of over 70%. Although China has historically enjoyed relatively low import prices, the recent surge in global market prices has directly affected domestic prices. For example, the delivered price of bulk potash imports from Russia and Belarus increased from around $260 in September 2007 to $350 in December, and reached $510 by April 2008. Moreover, the rapid growth of agricultural production and the increasing adoption of balanced fertilization concepts have led to a much higher demand for potash compared to nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. This has resulted in a growing shortage of potash in the market. By early 2008, potash stock levels at ports had dropped to about 3 million tons, lower than previous years. According to the China Minmetals Chemicals Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, potash imports via land fell by 46% from January to February, leading to a significant shortage of traditional potash supplies in northern regions. Before the 2008 import contracts were signed, domestic stocks couldn’t be replenished effectively. By March, potash shortages became evident in major fertilizer regions, causing transaction prices between dealers and end users to continue rising. In conclusion, the high reliance on foreign markets, combined with the rapid increase in international potash prices, has driven up domestic costs. Additionally, local supply-demand imbalances and regional market disorder have contributed significantly to the price hikes. (Reporter: Gong Jie)

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