"At present, the ex-factory price of methanol is 2,650 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether is 4,200 yuan, up 36% and 35% year-on-year, respectively, up 13% and 13.5% from the previous quarter, the highest level since the financial crisis." On October 19, Li Shaochun, vice minister of marketing and marketing of Shaanxi Weihe Coal Chemical Group, said with delight to reporters.
He said that after the ex-factory price of methanol and dimethyl ether in the Guanzhong region of Shaanxi reached a low of 1,950 yuan and 3,150 yuan respectively in the middle and late July, the "V" type reversal started from August. Since the end of September, driven by the demand from the downstream, the force has risen. In the near future, it has pulled up sharply. For only half a month since October, the ex-factory price of methanol has risen by 300 yuan, and the ex-factory price of dimethyl ether rose by 450 yuan. This increase was also very rare before the financial crisis.
According to the reporter’s understanding, the ex-factory price of methanol in the northwest and north China is generally between RMB 2,200 and RMB 2,650, in Central China between RMB 2,550 and RMB 2,750, in East China and South China up to RMB 2,650 to RMB 2,800, and in southwest China up to RMB 2,450 to 2,700. It was more than 300 yuan higher than in early September. Driven by the sharp increase in methanol prices, the ex-factory price of DME was generally raised to RMB 3,700-4,200 in most of the Northwest China, Inner Mongolia in North China, and Guizhou in Southwest China. The ex-factory price of dimethyl ether in most of the northeast and southwest climbed to 4300. ~ 4,450 yuan, about 4,600 yuan in Central China, the highest in East China and South China, all reached more than 4,700 yuan, and individual companies even up to 4,850 yuan listing price.
The reason why the alcohol ether market is hot is analyzed. Li Shaochun believes that the chief promoter is the government's restrictive policy. According to reports, this year is the year of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” for customs clearance. Originally, in accordance with the energy conservation and emission reduction efforts of the previous four years, more than half of the provinces in the country can barely complete the “Eleventh Five-Year” energy-saving and emission reduction targets. However, in the first half of this year, as the economy recovered and people’s demand for high-energy-consuming products such as electricity, coal, transportation, building materials, and chemicals increased, energy consumption in many regions rebounded, completing the “Eleventh Five-Year” energy saving. The difficulty of reducing emissions targets has suddenly increased. In order to ensure the realization of energy-saving and emission-reduction targets, various localities have adopted iron fist measures to implement restrictions on “two-high” enterprises including methanol, synthetic ammonia, chlor-alkali, yellow phosphorus, and coking. Since August, Shanxi, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and other places have taken the lead in restricting the production of electricity in the “two high” industries. Since September, more stringent restrictions have been implemented in eastern China such as Shandong, Anhui, and Jiangsu, including methanol, High-energy-consuming companies, such as ammonia, have been asked to limit production or stop production, reducing the supply of methanol. Judging from the current situation, affected by the government's restrictive policies, at least 10 million tons of methanol plant capacity in the country cannot be used, making the methanol supply suddenly decrease and pushing up prices.
In addition, part of the methanol plant stopped due to its own problems, reducing the supply of methanol, but also boosted the price rise. At present, there are quite a number of large-scale coal-head methanol companies, which were constructed by the temptation of methanol products in the first half of 2005-2008, and were put into production before and after the financial crisis broke out. Due to the huge bank loan interest, equipment depreciation and financial management costs, the methanol price after operation is always running around the cost of the company, which makes the book losses of these enterprises more and more, the debt ratio is getting higher and higher, and the refinancing is difficult. , Liquidity is stretched, and even the basic operations of the company can no longer be maintained. According to rough statistics, at present, only Shaanxi, Henan, Shanxi, Shandong, Anhui and other places have a total of 9 sets of 400,000 to 600,000 tons/year of methanol plant shutdown due to capital chain fracture, and another 8 sets of 600,000 tons of methanol plant due to technology Or stop production due to maintenance or other reasons, the national monthly methanol production decreased by more than 600,000 tons, pushing up the price of methanol.
Finally, the rise in international methanol prices and the rise in domestic prices of liquefied gas have lifted domestic alcohol ether prices. Affected by global economic recovery, devaluation of the US dollar, and winter heating demand, the prices of international oil, natural gas, and coal energy products have continued to rise since August, raising methanol production costs and shipping costs, and driving methanol prices rising. At present, the international methanol FOB price is generally 365 to 375 US dollars, compared with the beginning of September rose 50 to 80 US dollars, pulling the domestic methanol prices rise simultaneously. Stimulated by the increase in prices of resource products, domestic LPG prices also rose sharply. At present, the ex-factory price of liquefied gas in the Northwest has risen to 5,300 yuan, and liquefied gas in other regions has risen by more than 600 yuan from the end of August to the beginning of September, stimulating liquefied gas replacement. The dimethyl ether price of fuel rose following the trend.
“Because the winter season is the traditional peak season for coal and liquefied gas, as the weather turns cold, the demand for coal and liquefied gas will still increase. Coal shortages and gas shortages may even occur. The price of coal and liquefied gas will continue to increase, which in turn will boost methanol. Dimethyl ether prices are running high or continue to rise." Li Shaochun is optimistic about the outlook for alcohol ethers.
Hu Kepeng, chief economist of Yulin Natural Gas Chemical Co., Ltd., agreed with Li Shaochun's judgment. He said that from November each year to the next year from March to March, domestic industrial gas supplies are very tight, forcing gas head chemical companies to restrict production or stop production. According to climate experts, this year, the world will experience a cold winter, and it will last for a long time. It is expected that the gas consumption for civilian heating will therefore rise sharply, and the short-term impact of the gas head chemical companies will be even greater, and there may be more gas production. Or stop production. At present, the gas head methanol accounts for about 32% of the total methanol production capacity in China. Once the gas head methanol company cuts production and ceases production in large areas, the domestic methanol supply will be reduced again, and the methanol price will continue to rise. The rise in the price of methanol is bound to push the price of DME up.
Hu Kepeng and Li Shaochun also believe that because of the tight supply of natural gas, it will generally last until March of the following year. In addition, next year is the beginning of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. To make the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” energy-saving and emission-reduction work get a “good start”, it will inevitably continue to introduce even more stringent restrictions. Therefore, it is expected that before the end of March next year, domestic alcohol ether prices will remain high or continue to rise under tight supply support.

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