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ACT Research has recently published its decarbonization forecast in the *North America Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK Plus*, which outlines expected progress in zero-emission technologies such as battery-electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell-electric vehicles (FCEV), and natural gas (NG) as viable alternatives for reducing emissions. The report highlights how these technologies are shaping the future of commercial vehicle fleets across North America.
Ann Rundle, ACT’s Vice President of Electrification & Autonomy, emphasized that BEVs are currently one of the most promising solutions for achieving decarbonization goals across various applications and gross vehicle weight (GVW) segments. She noted that while FCEVs and NG trucks will continue to play a role, their adoption will be limited to specific, niche markets and occur at much slower rates compared to BEVs.
The report also predicts a significant rise in Class 8 tractor sales by 2026, driven by the U.S. EPA’s 2027 low-NOx regulations. However, BEV adoption is expected to remain modest in 2025 and 2026 due to supply-side challenges like infrastructure limitations. These constraints are expected to ease by 2027 as the market matures.
Lydia Vieth, a Research Analyst at ACT, added that while medium-duty (MD) applications are currently the strongest area for BEV growth, California’s Advanced Clean Trucks regulation is accelerating BEV adoption in Class 8 tractors through the end of the decade. Beyond 2030, the total cost of ownership (TCO) advantage of heavy-duty BEVs is expected to become the main driver of adoption in higher GVW applications.
FCEV truck volumes are projected to stay low from 2025 to 2029, mainly due to higher TCO and limited hydrogen refueling infrastructure. This restricts FCEV use to specific fleets and routes where H2 fueling is available.
Rundle also noted that NG truck sales are expected to remain relatively stable in the near term, regardless of overall Class 8 volume trends.
ACT Research’s forecasting tools, including the standard *NA CV OUTLOOK* and the new *OUTLOOK Plus*, offer comprehensive insights into the North American commercial vehicle and transportation market. These reports cover Classes 4–8 vehicles and commercial trailers, helping industry players make informed decisions about planning, budgeting, and strategic direction. They analyze key demand drivers such as regulations, consumer behavior, and current market conditions, while providing detailed unit forecasts and powertrain splits.
The NA CV forecast reports provide a deep dive into the trucking industry, offering a snapshot of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis, and five-year forecasts. Designed to support OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other stakeholders, the reports deliver critical data on build and retail sales, market conditions, macroeconomic trends, freight performance, used equipment valuation, and regulatory impacts.
**ACT Research Overview**
ACT Research is widely recognized as the leading provider of commercial vehicle data, market analysis, and forecasts for North America and China. Its services are used by major truck and trailer manufacturers, suppliers, and financial institutions. ACT contributes to the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and is a member of the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Panel.
ACT executives have received numerous accolades, including election to the Board of Directors of the National Association for Business Economics, appointments as Consulting Economists, and awards for accurate economic forecasting. Senior staff members have also been honored with top economic outlook recognitions from outlets like the Wall Street Journal and USA Today.
For more information, visit www.actresearch.net.