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ACT Research has recently published its decarbonization outlook in the report *North America Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK Plus*, which outlines the expected development of zero-emission technologies such as battery-electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell-electric vehicles (FCEV), and natural gas (NG) as viable alternatives for reducing emissions. The report provides a comprehensive view of how these technologies will shape the future of commercial transportation across North America.
Ann Rundle, ACT Research’s Vice President of Electrification & Autonomy, emphasized that BEVs are currently seen as one of the most promising solutions for achieving decarbonization goals across various vehicle applications and gross vehicle weights (GVW). However, she also noted that FCEVs and NG trucks will likely remain in more specialized niches with much slower adoption rates compared to BEVs.
The report predicts a major increase in total Class 8 tractor sales by 2026, driven largely by the U.S. EPA’s 2027 low-NOx regulations. In the short term, however, BEV adoption is expected to grow gradually. According to Rundle, “We forecast relatively low adoption rates in 2025 and 2026, as the commercial EV market is still in its early stages. Infrastructure challenges and supply constraints are limiting growth now, but we expect this to change significantly after 2027.â€
Lydia Vieth, a Research Analyst at ACT, added that while medium-duty (MD) applications are currently the best fit for BEVs, California’s Advanced Clean Trucks regulation is pushing for greater BEV adoption in Class 8 tractors through the end of the decade. Beyond 2030, the total cost of ownership (TCO) for heavy-duty BEVs is expected to become a key factor driving their adoption in higher GVW segments.
Regarding FCEVs, Vieth noted that their volumes will remain low from 2025 to 2029 due to higher TCO and limited hydrogen refueling infrastructure. “FCEVs will be restricted to fleets and routes where hydrogen is available, making them a niche option for now,†she said.
Rundle also highlighted that the near-term outlook for natural gas trucks remains stable, with unit sales projected to stay flat regardless of broader Class 8 truck volume trends.
ACT Research offers two forecasting tools: the standard *NA CV OUTLOOK* and the enhanced *OUTLOOK Plus*. These reports provide a detailed look at the North American commercial vehicle and transportation market, covering Classes 4–8 vehicles and commercial trailers. They help industry players plan, budget, and implement go-to-market strategies, supported by third-party insights and data-driven analysis.
The reports analyze demand drivers such as regulatory changes, consumer behavior, and current market activity. They include forecasts for units, powertrain splits (diesel, BEV, FCEV, NG), and insights into macroeconomic factors, freight performance, and regulatory impacts.
ACT Research is a leading provider of data, market analysis, and forecasts for the commercial vehicle and bus industries in North America and China. Its services are widely used by OEMs, suppliers, investors, and financial institutions. The company is recognized for its accurate economic forecasts and contributions to major economic indicator panels. ACT Research continues to support decision-makers in navigating the cyclical nature of the commercial vehicle market with reliable, forward-looking insights. For more information, visit www.actresearch.net.